中国健康科技的双重机遇
2025年2月24日
人口结构正在改变中国的医疗保健行业。 中国是全球老龄化人口增长最快的国家之一：由于预期寿命延长和生育率下降，预计到2040年，60岁以上人口的比例将达到28%。[1]
中国的医疗保健支出预计将同步激增，到2030年将达到约28万亿美元。[2]
这样的快速扩张正在推动对创新医疗解决方案的需求，进而带动中国健康科技产业的发展——不仅是为满足国内需求，也要让自身成为全球市场的一支重要力量。 对于投资者而言，该行业带来的投资机会颇具吸引力，特别是考虑到可以利用证券融资来驾驭市场。
一些最具创新性的中国制药公司近期的表现，让人得以一窥其中的一些机会。 自中国股市于2024年9月下旬反弹以来，由中国数据提供商Wind跟踪的创新药物概念指数（Innovative Drugs Concept Index）比主要的沪深医疗保健全收益指数（CSI Healthcare Total Return Index）和沪深300指数（CSI 300）高出10%。[3] 这一趋势表明，在技术进步和政府扶持政策的推动下，投资者对医疗保健和生物技术的未来充满信心。
一项有助于健康科技产业蓬勃发展的关键技术进步是对人工智能（AI）的采用——人工智能能够在药物发现等领域发挥关键作用。[4] 今年1月，中国人工智能平台深度求索（DeepSeek）推出了一款风靡全球的免费人工智能助手。该公司声称，训练这款人工智能助手的数据用量更少，运营成本远远低于现有的同类服务，因而对ChatGPT等现有平台构成了强有力的挑战。
人工智能同样具有颠覆医疗保健行业的潜力。 自2018年以来，已有100多家利用人工智能开展业务的制药公司在中国建立，每家公司都有独特的算法，并以医疗成像设备、诊断和药物发现领域为重点。[5]
2023年，首批完全由人工智能开发的药物在中国进入人体临床试验——鉴于利用人工智能进行药物发现的长期前景，许多制药集团目前正大力投资于研发。[6] 到2030年，中国的慢性病和自身免疫性药物市场规模预计将达到约200亿美元，[7] 人工智能或将大有用武之地。
这对中国来说很重要，因为中国需要新药来应对与衰老相关的疾病，如神经退行性疾病、心脏病和肺部疾病。
助推投资
相关工作已在进行中。 长期以来，中国政府一直在填补人工智能领域的资金缺口，为国内企业提供资金和援助，而清华大学支持的一批新兴人工智能初创企业也在不断突破创新界限。[8]
在生成式人工智能专利方面，中国也处于世界领先地位。2014年至2023年期间，中国为3.8万项生成式人工智能投资申请了专利，而美国的同类申请约为6276项。[9]
尽管美国人工智能市场的规模和投资支持力度使中国相形见绌，但事实证明，中国的人工智能产业对包括主权财富基金在内的中东地区基金极具吸引力，因为这些基金看到了健康科技蓬勃发展的潜力。
例如，卡塔尔投资局（Qatar Investment Authority）在2023年11月成为中国生物科技公司药明合联（WuXi XDC）首次公开募股的基石投资者，[10] 而在2024年年中，总部位于巴林的投资公司Investcorp和主权财富基金中国投资有限责任公司共同推出一个10亿美元的平台，以投资于海湾地区和中国各行业的高增长公司，其中就包括医疗保健行业。[11]
随着中国最近向海外企业开放生物科技产业，该领域也在吸引外国投资。[12]
对云计算和人工智能系统早已熟悉且深深扎根其中的中国本土科技公司，也加入了这一行列。
过去五年，在互联网公司腾讯投资的初创企业中，超过十分之一来自医疗保健领域，其中约72%位于中国大陆和香港地区，而阿里巴巴集团和京东也在这一领域取得了进展。[13]
这些公司的技术能力使其与健康科技和数字医疗保健行业格外契合。 例如，数字医疗保健是阿里健康信息技术公司的一项核心支柱业务——该公司期望加强这一业务，探索将人工智能大型语音模型进一步应用于医疗保健和医学领域。[14]
抓住机遇
随着中国的医疗保健行业迎来蓬勃发展，投资者面临着双重机遇：一方面，随着初创企业的成熟和发展，新公司不断涌现；另一方面，健康科技也在为其他行业知名公司的投资策略提供新的方向。 这对投资者也意味着挑战：如何抓住这些新的机遇，同时继续持有现有的表现良好的资产。
借助证券融资，投资者可利用现有投资组合来获取流动性。 这种融资方式尤其适用于健康科技等行业，因为在这些行业中，时机对于抓住快速出现的机会至关重要。 投资者利用自己所持的证券，可以将资金投资于有前途的健康科技公司，同时保留现有的蓝筹股持仓。
谨慎的风险管理至关重要。 考虑到医疗科技等行业固有的波动性，投资者在实施证券融资之前，应密切关注市场波动、监管变化、公司特定风险和估值等方方面面。
不过，中国健康科技投资具有广阔的长期发展前景，因为人工智能推动的创新、政府支持和不断增长的国际投资将共同创造一片增长的沃土。 把握这一战略要点，包括利用证券融资，可使投资者处于有利地位，进而通过市场潜力受益。
[1] https://www.who.int/china/health-topics/ageing
[2] https://www.invesco.com/apac/en/institutional/insights/equity/china-healthcare-outlook-for-2025.html
[3] https://www.invesco.com/apac/en/institutional/insights/equity/china-healthcare-outlook-for-2025.html
[4] https://globalventuring.com/corporate/investment/tencent-china-healthcare-investment/
[5] https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202403/18/WS65f7fb89a31082fc043bd3e3.html
[6] https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/artificial-intelligence/ai-transforming-industries-china
[7] https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/global-research/artificial-intelligence/ai-transforming-industries-china
[8] https://itif.org/publications/2024/08/26/how-innovative-is-china-in-ai/
[9] https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/china-leading-generative-ai-patents-race-un-report-says-2024-07-03/
[10] https://www.bdapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/2024-China-Healthcare-MA-Outlook_16Apr24.pdf
[11] https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2024/04/bahrains-investcorp-chinas-cic-launch-1b-sino-gulf-investment-platform
[12] https://rouse.com/insights/news/2024/china-s-new-policies-on-foreign-investment-in-healthcare-and-biotechnology-catalyzing-innovation-and-strengthening-patent-protection
[13] https://globalventuring.com/corporate/investment/tencent-china-healthcare-investment/
[14] https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1113/2024111300821.pdf
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